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Iran War May Erupt Before U.S. Midterm Election
(Bhuwan Thapaliya (Bhuwan), OhmyNews International, 2006-05-02)
The war of words between Iran and the United States has lost its rules. It has, in effect, walked full-robed into a congregation of nuclear debate, and critics complain that it has trespassed into a feud of patriotism, but there is a hitch. . . . That, unfortunately, is proving painfully Utopian. The row could get even worse as the West's attempt to resolve the Iranian nuclear ambitions through the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Association) has lost the much favored impetus. . . . Meanwhile, bellicose declarations that war between Iran and the United States is inevitable and that Iran will no longer abide by the terms of the armistice that ended the 1974 American hostage crisis have garnered the desired headlines. . . . Iranians, who have no desire for war with America, have played down the American actions -- an ostentatious sign that they were not alarmed. But at the same time they are cautious. . . . According to media reports, the head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, General Yahya Rahim Safavi underlined this when he warned: "You can start a war, but it won't be you who finishes it." And for his part, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, when reviewing a parade of troops on Iran's army day, pledged resolute action in response to any assault; this followed the extensive naval and Revolutionary Guard exercises in the Persian Gulf. . . . By contrast, American officials have been talking the crisis up, at a press conference on April 18, President George W. Bush in repeating the anthem "all options are on the table," gave renewed credence to the idea that nuclear weapons could be used against Iran. . . . They say oil and geopolitics of the Cold War puts Iran on the American map. But according to most observers, those issues are not the only ones. With elections lurking around the corner, the Republican politicians are viewing the U.S.-Iran nuclear crisis from a seductive prospect. . . . "It follows that the most likely period for U.S. military action would be in late October, just before the mid-term elections. The scenario would be of U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, declarations of success, plenty of TV footage of destroyed nuclear plants, and a 'Mission Accomplished' speech - all in the space of a week or so, culminating in the elections," writes Paul Rodgers in his article, "Iran: War by October?" . . . Yet according to analysts, the prospect of a U.S.-Iran war looks ominous at the moment. But at the same time, if the possible conflict can be avoided before the American election and the early part of 2007, then there are probabilities of positive correlations developing between Washington and Tehran. . . . For the present, however, that is the less probable outcome. If America does not get what it wants now, it is sure to up the ante as it is also in global interests that Iran be dissuaded from building nuclear powers. But with their survival at stake, Iranian rulers may be prone to reckless miscalculation.



posted by LoZo 2:47 PM


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