More
Matrix Masters
Blogs
World Events
US News
Science & Health
Earth News
Free Speech
News from Africa
News from Palestine
Bill of Rights Under Attack

Matrix Masters'
SUPPORTERS

Lorenzo's
Random Musings
. . . about Chaos,
Reason, and Hope

 

Prepare for Peak Oil Now
(Richard Heinberg, AlterNet, November 14, 2005)
[NOTE: The following is only a brief summary of a lengthly article. The link above will take you to the full text of this important essay.]

Only 150 years ago, 85 percent of all work being accomplished in the U.S. economy was done by muscle power -- most of that by animal muscle, about a quarter of it by human muscle. Today, that percentage is effectively zero; virtually all of the physical work supporting our economy is done by fuel-fed machines. What caused this transformation? Quite simply, it was oil's comparative cheapness and versatility. . . . Today petroleum provides 97 percent of our transportation fuel, and is also a feedstock for chemicals and plastics. . . . It is no exaggeration to say that we live in a world that runs on oil. . . . However, oil is a finite resource. Therefore the peaking and decline of world oil production are inevitable events -- and on that there is scarcely any debate; only the timing is uncertain. Forecast dates for the peak range from this year to 2035. . . . Evidence that we are approaching peak includes the following:** ExxonMobil documents that global oil discoveries peaked in 1964. Declining rates of discovery are therefore a long-established trend. ** Chevron notes in recent advertisements that 33 of 48 nations are in decline. We have thus seen the peaking of production in a majority of individual nations, including some important producers such as Indonesia, Norway, Great Britain, and Venezuela. Mexico will reach its peak within the next two years. ** As noted by the International Energy Agency, there is evidence that a substantial amount of "proven reserves" in OPEC countries are illusory, the result of a scramble for market share within a cartel that allocates export quotas based on stated reserves. . . . Expressions of concern have been voiced by corporations, prominent organizations, and knowledgeable individuals, including ChevronTexaco, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Volvo, Ford Motor Company Executive Vice President Mark Fields, the Chinese Offshore Oil Corporation’s chief economist, and numerous petroleum scientists and oil industry analysts. . . . The question immediately arises: Will alternative sources be able to make up the difference? . . . Alternative sources often discussed include oil sands from Canada, shale oil in Colorado, coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids, nuclear, and renewables such as solar and wind. Each of these will require immense investment and well over a decade of intense effort in order to produce substantial quantities of energy to offset declines from fossil fuels. And in most cases, rates of production are and will be constrained by non-economic factors. . . . Early this year a report was released, prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy by a team led by Robert L. Hirsch, who has a distinguished background in the oil industry and is a senior energy analyst at SAIC and the Rand Corporation. The Hirsch Report (titled "Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management") concludes that price signals will arrive at least ten years too late to enable a gentle, market-led transition away from oil to other energy sources. The report describes Peak Oil as an "unprecedented" challenge for modern societies, and describes economic, social, and political risks if preparation is not undertaken soon enough, or on adequate scale. . . . Let me read you a few sentences from the Hirsch Report: The problems associated with world oil production peaking will not be temporary, and past "energy crisis" experience will provide relatively little guidance. The challenge of oil peaking deserves immediate, serious attention, if risks are to be fully understood and mitigation begun on a timely basis. Mitigation will require a minimum of a decade of intense, expensive effort, because the scale of liquid fuels mitigation is inherently extremely large. Intervention by governments will be required, because the economic and social implications of oil peaking would otherwise be chaotic. . . . The report also concludes that the costs of preparing too late for global oil peak would far outweigh those of preparing too early. . . . we are already seeing serious impacts resulting from current prices in the $60-per-barrel range. For example . . . currently tens of thousands of farmers are agonizing over whether they can afford to plant next year’s crop, given high fuel and fertilizer costs . . . In the chemistry industry alone, more than 100 plants have closed and more than 100,000 jobs have been lost just this year. . . . Home heating costs are projected to be 40-50% higher this winter than last. . . . As prices go even higher, and with actual scarcities of fuel, people will experience difficulties commuting, and the maintenance of our far-flung food distribution systems may become problematic. . . . On top of all this, oil is a strategic resource: as supplies become scarce, there is increasing likelihood of international conflict. . . . To avoid the worst-case scenario we must begin today to reduce our dependence on oil. The effort must have top priority. It must focus primarily on reducing demand, and only secondarily on producing large quantities of alternative transportation fuels. . . . However, without a Protocol -- essentially a system for global oil rationing -- we will see extremely volatile prices that will undermine the economies of all nations, and all industries and businesses. We will also see increasing international competition for oil likely leading to conflict; and if a general oil war were to break out, everyone would lose. Given the alternatives, the Protocol clearly seems preferable. . . . National governments, local municipalities, corporations, and private individuals will all need to contribute to the effort to wean ourselves from oil, an effort that must quickly expand to include a reduction in dependence on other fossil fuels as well. . . . All of this will constitute an immense challenge for our species in the coming century. We will meet that challenge successfully only if we begin immediately.

posted by LoZo 12:40 PM