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Mapping the Global Future
[NOTE: The following is a brief summary of an interesting report prepared by System insiders. The full report is available via the link above.]

The 2020 Global Landscape
Relative Certainties / Key Uncertainties

Globalization largely irreversible, likely to become less Westernized. / Whether globalization will pull in lagging economies; degree to which Asian countries set new "rules of the game."

World economy substantially larger. / Extent of gaps between "haves" and "have-nots"; backsliding by fragile democracies; managing or containing financial crises.

Increasing number of global firms facilitate spread of new technologies. / Extent to which connectivity challenges governments.

Rise of Asia and advent of possible new economic middle-weights. / Whether rise of China/India occurs smoothly.

Aging populations in established powers. / Ability of EU and Japan to adapt work forces, welfare systems, and integrate migrant populations; whether EU becomes a superpower.

Energy supplies "in the ground" sufficient to meet global demand. / Political instability in producer countries; supply disruptions.
[COMMENT by Lorenzo: This is pure fantasy. If you want to be prepared for what is coming, I highly advise you to read Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World.]

Growing power of nonstate actors. / Willingness and ability of states and international institutions to accommodate these actors.

Political Islam remains a potent force. / Impact of religiosity on unity of states and potential for conflict; growth of jihadist ideology.

Improved WMD capabilities of some states. / More or fewer nuclear powers; ability of terrorists to acquire biological, chemical, radiological, or nuclear weapons.

Arc of instability spanning Middle East, Asia, Africa. / Precipitating events leading to overthrow of regimes.

Great power conflict escalating into total war unlikely. / Ability to manage flashpoints and competition for resources.

Environmental and ethical issues even more to the fore. / Extent to which new technologies create or resolve ethical dilemmas.

US will remain single most powerful actor economically, technologically, militarily. / Whether other countries will more openly challenge Washington; whether US loses S&T edge.

At no time since the formation of the Western alliance system in 1949 have the shape and nature of international alignments been in such a state of flux. The end of the Cold War shifted the tectonic plates, but the repercussions from these momentous events are still unfolding. Emerging powers in Asia, retrenchment in Eurasia, a roiling Middle East, and transatlantic divisions are among the issues that have only come to a head in recent years. The very magnitude and speed of change resulting from a globalizing world—apart from its precise character—will be a defining feature of the world out to 2020. Other significant characteristics include: the rise of new powers, new challenges to governance, and a more pervasive sense of insecurity, including terrorism. As we map the future, the prospects for increasing global prosperity and the limited likelihood of great power conflict provide an overall favorable environment for coping with what are otherwise daunting challenges. The role of the United States will be an important variable in how the world is shaped, influencing the path that states and nonstate actors choose to follow. . . . The role of the United States will be an important shaper of the international order in 2020. Washington may be increasingly confronted with the challenge of managing—at an acceptable cost to itself—relations with Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and others absent a single overarching threat on which to build consensus. Although the challenges ahead will be daunting, the United States will retain enormous advantages, playing a pivotal role across the broad range of issues—economic, technological, political, and military—that no other state will match by 2020.

[COMMENT by Lorenzo: Of course, this report assumes that the USA will still be a viable political entity in 2020. That, IMHO, is very doubtful.]

posted by Lorenzo 8:37 AM