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Falluja's fighters dig in for the final onslaught
(Peter Beaumont, The Observer, October 24, 2004)
Early yesterday it was US Marine vehicles that were heading into Shuhada, turning out of their forward operating base - a walled former resort of low bungalows round a lake known to Iraqis as 'Dreamland' - for a house raid that US military sources say netted a 'senior leader' in the network run by Jordanian terror mastermind Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, along with five others. He was named as Abdel-Hamid Fiyadh, 50, who was arrested along with his two sons, Walid, 18, and Majid, 25, and three relatives. . . . For a year and more, this is how the war in Falluja has been conducted: at night, raids by American troops seen largely through the green shimmer of their night-vision goggles; by day, block searches and vehicle checkpoints. . . . On the insurgents' side, it has been prosecuted with an equal, if covert, vigour among the back lanes and along the quiet lanes to the south that act as supply routes between other centres for the rebellion. . . . After a year and a half of gun battles, artillery and tank fire and bombing raids, many of the houses of Shuhada are scarred. But Shuhada is on the brink of even greater violence as US and Iraqi forces mass for what they hope will be the definitive battle of the Sunni Triangle. . . . How that battle unfolds will not only hold the key to Iraq's elections in January, and to a joint US-British military strategy, but to the life of Margaret Hassan and perhaps to how history will judge the actions of both George Bush and Tony Blair. . . . It is a battle that will be fought among the metal shops off Highway 10, where it carves into the city of 300,000. It will be fought along the highway itself that neatly bisects Falluja and, eventually, it will be fought in the warren of narrow, filthy lanes of the slums that sit by the Euphrates, where fighters, at first largely from the al-Buesa tribe, first began their rebellion. . . . Even when journalists could still visit the fighters in Falluja, this was a threatening place, where lookouts would stand on the street corners to warn of American troops and other 'spies'. . . . Now the state of the insurgency in Falluja is largely unknown, save that it has taken deep root in the 'City of Mosques' and its surrounding villages, despite claims by the US military that they have waged a bloody campaign of attrition that has bitten deeply into the leadership of both the insurgents and their allies in Zarqawi's militia network. . . . What is equally uncertain is whether US Marines are capable of bringing Falluja back under control without the massive loss of civilian life that accompanied their last major excursion into the city in April, or without large loss of American lives. . . . It is for this fight that British troops of the Black Watch are being brought north into Babil province to release more US Marines for the fight. . . . According to military sources, this time the battle will be different - although there is no evidence of that so far from the bombing raids that have been levelled against districts like Shuhada in the past few weeks which, say the city's doctors, have already claimed many lives. . . . This time military planners say the US Marine assaults will be led by special forces, who will pinpoint insurgent positions as they move through the city block by block, pushing the fighters back until they are stopped by the river and trapped by a cordon around the city. . . . That is the theory. Iraq has a nasty habit of turning the theories on their heads. Nowhere more so than here. . . . Across Iraq, US military intelligence officials conceded to the New York Times on Friday, the estimated numbers of fighters now stand at between 8,000 and 12,000, perhaps 20,000 when active sympathisers are included. . . . They are assessments that contrast sharply with earlier intelligence reports, in which the number of insurgents has varied from as few as 2,000 to a maximum of 7,000, with 400 in Falluja. . . . What US military planners now recognise is that the fighters in Falluja could number many more. And, as The Observer reported last weekend, the insurgents have access to huge sums of money from an underground financial network run by former Baath Party leaders and Saddam Hussein's relatives operating from Syria and elsewhere. . . . All of which raises serious new questions over the nature of the insurgency: has it grown out of plans laid down in advance for Iraqis loyal to the old regime to continue the fight? Was the battle for Falluja, in many respects, always destined to happen? . . . 'My guess is that, as soon as the US election count - or recount - starts, you will see an awful lot of action.' . . . But in some respects a campaign has long been under way. Since mid-October the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force has been operating checkpoints around the city, while US jets have launched almost daily raids. . . . The events in Falluja over the next few weeks will shape the future of Iraq.


posted by Lorenzo 8:15 AM


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