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John Kerry's Tipping Point
(Don Hazen, Alternet, September 23, 2004)
There is a growing sense that John Kerry's campaign has reached a tipping point. The watershed moment was a sharply worded and highly publicized speech attacking George Bush's policy on Iraq on Sept. 20 at New York University. . . . In his speech, Kerry said he would never have supported the invasion of an Iraq that didn't have weapons of mass destruction. By asserting that America is less safe now because Bush invaded Iraq instead of pursuing Osama bin laden – "We have traded a dictator for a chaos that has left America less secure" – Kerry is now drawing a sharp contrast with his opponent rather than trying to sell himself as a better version of Bush. . . . Suddenly, there was a sigh of relief heard round the world as Democrats and progressives finally got some sparkle in their eyes. Kerry was talking values, which in turn created greater clarity of purpose and momentum among his heretofore ambivalent, and carping, supporters. It also marked him for the first time as the anti-war candidate, clearly opposed to a war that a majority of Americans say has failed. . . . Kerry's approach eschews the go-it-alone philosophy that has characterized much of Bush's foreign policy – an attitude that appeals to his fundamentalist electoral base, especially white male voters in the South and West, but endangers the United States in the international arena. . . . By linking the disaster of the war to the hundreds of billions of squandered dollars in Iraq, Kerry is also articulating the vision of a "strong America" as opposed to the Bush's narrow focus on "strong defense." . . . Bush and Co. – whose plans to bleed social programs while offering tax cuts to wealthy individuals and corporations – offer a stark alternative in terms of both values and their vision for the future. Kerry's tough stance, assuming he maintains it, finally gives the base of progressive Democratic voters which – including the large majority at the convention in Boston – something to believe in. . . . the Bush campaign must privately be worrying about running against an articulate and plain-spoken Kerry, rallying his troops by opposing a war that is unpopular. . . . The Bush folks know their track record on domestic issues is abyssmal, be it on health care, education or the economy. The 9/11 attacks, considered the White House's strong point, can just as easily work against them, given the colossal security failure leading to the attacks and Bush's own performance at a moment of crisis (famed 7 minutes he spent reading "My Pet Goat" to the children in the Florida school). If an aggressive Kerry is able to force them to defend the war in Iraq, questions about Bush's handling of the battle against terrorism are bound to follow. . . . The truth is that there is very little good to say about the Iraq war, except that Saddam, the evil dictator is in his little cell, tending to his plants. And there is even less to say about its success in making America safer in the world. . . . But facts alone will not win John Kerry the White House. Progressives too often think that superior facts and ideas will eventually carry the day against the Republicans. According to Lakoff, that assumption is just plain wrong: "Voters vote their identity and their values, which need not coincide with their self-interest." . . . "People have to get it out of their head that the Republicans are misinformed or duped by the media. They know what they want and are totally committed to achieving it. The New York Times quoted a Republican delegate who said: 'We're in a civil war over abortion and gay rights and well never give in.' That's what you are up against," says the veteran political observer. . . . Kerry, however, should not try and address this problem by moving to the right. As Lakoff argues, leaning rightward not only alienates the progressive base, it also helps reinforce conservative values among swing voters. The most effective strategy is to appeal to progressive values among these same voters, who are in the "middle" precisely because they subscribe to both value systems in different aspects of their lives. . . . Among the reasons why Michael Moore considers most of these polls "B.S." is that they usually poll "likely voters," i.e. those who have consistently voted in the past few elections. As Moore points out, "So that cuts out young people who are voting for the first time and a ton of non-voters who are definitely going to vote in THIS election." . . . One can play the numbers game – be it with polls or voter registration. But in the end, this election is going to depend on one central factor: voter turnout. For the Democrats to win the election, they need to hold steady in those states won in 2000 states and win at least one of states where they lost last time. . . . Florida is probably the best bet for a pick up, depending, of course, on how the votes are counted. Florida now has a million new voters registered, with two more weeks to go before registration closes. The bulk of these new voters have been added by non-partisan groups with clearly liberal leanings, such as ACORN, the NAACP, Mia Familia Vota, ACT and the 527s. The Republicans account for 278,000 of that million. . . . In all, there are upwards of 3 million in new voter registrations across the nation, most of which are in the key swing states, where the winning margin in 2000 in a number of cases was under 10,000. Add to that a couple of million targeted ACT voters and you have the ingredients for Democratic success.

posted by Lorenzo 2:43 PM