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Life After the Peak Oil Crash
Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky conclusion of a religious cult, but rather the result of diligent analysis sourced by hard data and the scientists who study global ?Peak Oil? and related geo-political events. The situation is so dire that even George W. Bush's Energy Adviser, Matthew Simmons, has acknowledged that "the situation is desperate. This is the world's biggest serious question." . . . What is "Peak Oil"? . . . All oil production follows a bell curve, whether in an individual field or on the planet as a whole. On the upslope of the curve production costs are significantly lower than on the downslope when extra effort (expense) is required to extract oil from reservoirs that are emptying out. . . . For the past 150 years, we have been moving up the upslope of the global oil production curve. "Peak Oil" is the industry term for the top of the curve. The peak will last for a year or so, at which time we will go down the very steep downslope. The further we go down the slope, the more it costs to produce oil, and its cousin, natural gas. . . . When will Peak Oil occur? . . . A more realistic estimate is between the year 2004-2010. Unfortunately, we won't know that we hit the peak until 3-4 years after we actually hit it. Even on the upslope of the curve, oil production varies a bit from year to year. It is possible that the year 2000 was the year of peak oil production, as production has dipped every year since. . . . the president of Exxon Mobil Exploration Company, Jon Thompson stated: "By 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce a volume of new oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being produced today". . . . Almost every current human endeavor from transportation, to manufacturing, to electricity to plastics, and especially food production is inextricably intertwined with oil and natural gas supplies. . . . Commercial food production is oil powered. All pesticides are petroleum based, and all commercial fertilizers are ammonia based. Ammonia is produced from natural gas. . . . Unfortunately, we are at a point where the demand for food/oil has been rising exponentially, and is expected to continue to do so. Oil (food) production, however, is about to drop dramatically. . . . When Peak Oil occurs, food production will plummet because of the cost of fertilizer will soar. The cost of storing (electricity) and transporting (gasoline) what little food that is produced will also soar. Unless you grow all your own food on your own local, self sustained farm, you will have to deal with the food shortage. . . . Thus, the aftermath of Peak Oil will extend far beyond how much you will pay for gas. Simply stated, you can expect: war, starvation, economic recession, possibly even the extinction of homo sapiens. . . . This is known as the post-oil "die-off". The term "die-off" captures perfectly the nightmare that is at our doorstep. . . . It is estimated that the world's population will contract to 500 million during the Oil Crash. (current world population: 6 billion) . . . We all may as well accept were going to die during the crash. However, if enough of us prepare, then at least a few should make it and humanity will rise once again. . . . What About Alternatives like Solar, Wind, Hydrogen etc? . . . Unfortunately, it is too late. It would take us a minimum of 50 years to develop a food delivery infrastructure based on alternative energies. Peak Oil is going to occur within five. Even if we stopped all wars, and committed ourselves entirely to energy alternatives such as solar, wind, hydrogen etc, the best we can hope for is to soften the fall. . . . Oil accounts for 40% of our current global energy supply. There are no alternatives to oil that can supply this much energy, let alont the amount of energy we require to feed a wolrdwide population that is increasing exponentially. . . . Ample evidence exists that we are in the first stages of the Oil Crash. In the last year (2003), the cost of food has risen 16%-25%. Health care costs have risen 15%. Education costs have risen 20%. These are often excluded from measures of inflation because they are considered "volatile". . . . As of 12/03 the "adjusted" unemployment, which has been squeezed out of as much meaning as conceivably possible, still hovers in the 6% range. However, if you factor in the quality of employment, then the real numbers are closer to 12%-15%. . . . The rolling blackouts experienced in California during Fall 2000, the massive East Coast blackout of August, 2003 and the various other massive blackouts that occured throughout the world during late summer of 2003, while not directly related to Peak Oil, are simply a sign of things to come. . . . If the year 2000 was the year of Peak Oil, it means we have very little time to prepare before things completley disintegrate. . . . In the context of Peak Oil, the wars in the Middle East are not wars of greed. Rather, they are wars for survival. . . . You can expect the U.S. to invade Syria, Iran and Saudi Arabia within the next 2-5 years. As you watch the news, you can already notice the hints are being dropped. "Iran has WMD" or "Syria isn't cooperating in the war on terror" or "Saudi Arabia is funding terrorism". "The war on terror will last for decades." The stage is being set so that the American public will accept these future invasions. . . . If we get Bush out of office, will that solve the problem? . . . Peak Oil is happening with or without Bush. . . . The President, his administration, and most of our legislators have been reduced to ceremonial figureheads for the energy and defense industries. These industries control both parties. . . . None of the presidential candidates except Dennis Kucinich have publicly mentioned Peak Oil even once. . . . In other words, regardless of who gets elected, we're on our own. . . . When food production plummets, the only way to control the population will be through the institution of a fascist style police state. The passage of the Patriot Acts are the foundation of that state. . . . Rather then developing a reasonable plan for handling the coming Oil Crash, out leaders have decided to make a last ditch grab for whatever recoverable oil is available by stealing it from the nations that have it. With control over the world's dwindling supplies of recoverable oil, they will have the ability to choose who lives and who dies. . . . If you aren't making over $200,000/year, our leaders don't care whether you live or die. As an example, 70% of our troops from the first Gulf War are now disabled with Gulf War Syndrome. The Reserve and National Guard troops that are now in Iraq have not been issued sidearms or bullet proof vests. Our lives mean nothing to our leaders. . . . Unlike past "end of the world" scenarios, such as nuclear war, biological terrorism, and of course Y2K, Peak Oil is not a question of "if". Peak Oil is a scientific fact. The only question is when. . . . If you are an optimist, you will deal with the reality of Peak Oil in a realistic way that optimizes humanity's chance of surviving Peak Oil and building a prosperous post-oil civilization. If you are not willing to deal with Peak Oil in this way, you are a fool who will be dead within 20 years. . . . How can we best deal with Peak Oil as a society? . . . Peak Oil is going to happen. People are going to die. We cannot stop it. But we may be able to minimize the amount of suffering while maximizing the chances of building a successful post-oil civilization if we immediately come together as a species and do the following:

1. Stop all wars and other nonessential economic activity. Dedicate all of our time and resources to developin energy alternatives.
2. Stop having kids. We cannot feed our current population. When the Oil Crash comes, the situation will go from bad to worse to nightmareish. More children means an increased demand for food that we cannot produce.
3. No more pets. They require food that needs to be used to feed people.
4 No more beef eating, as cattle raising is extremely energy intensive.
5. Drastically cut our energy consumption. This means eating produce that is grown locally, investing in hybrid cars, substituting bicycles for cars, limiting our purchase of consumer goods to those that are absolutely necessary, and no air travel unless absolutely necessary.

In every species, the "over adapted" members of that species tend to die off and be replaced by simpler versions. In the case of humanity, hyper-industrialized societies such as the United States will become extinct, while simpler, more peacefull societies will continue.

posted by Lorenzo 12:52 PM