Our blogs about
America's Wars
War on Iraq
War on Drugs
War on Afghanistan
War on Columbia
War on Philippines
War on Venezuela

MORE
Matrix Masters
Blogs
World Events
Katrina's Aftermath
US News
Bush Crime Family News
Science & Health
Earth News
Free Speech
News from Africa
News from Palestine
Bill of Rights Under Attack

Support Bloggers' Rights!

Lorenzo's
Random Musings
. . . about Chaos,
Reason, and Hope

Al Jazeera (English)
    Baghdad Burning Blog (by Riverbend, an Iraqi civilian girl)
            Dahr Jamail's Blog from Baghdad
                Imad Khadduri's blog "Free Iraq" (scroll down for English version)

Iraqi Civilian Deaths ... caused by Bush's unprovoked war

 

Oil War --Sefan B. Herpel
Does the war on Iraq conclude with the US taking Iraq's oil, selling it, and keeping the money? No way. It's much more complicated than that.

According to some theories, Saddam Hussein's goal was to acquire nukes and dominate Middle East oil. This would give him the power to advance Iraq's political interests. With this power over such a sizable percentage of the world's oil, he could threaten to halt the export of oil as a form of blackmail over Arabs, Europe, and the US.

Hussein's goal may have been a long shot, but according to Kenneth Pollack, a former Clinton administration official, it was to use the acquisition of nuclear weapons to be able to "call the shots in a grand Arab coalition" of Middle Eastern states. Pollack believed that if Saddam were to fulfill his goal of "dominance of the Gulf oil region and its oil supplies," that "would constitute a dire threat to US national security."

Maybe not "national security," but it could be a threat to economic security. Pollack goes so far as to claim that if Saddam had attained that kind of dominance over the other oil-producing states in the Middle East, the result could be a "new Great Depression."

Saudi Arabia is our key oil ally, but it is in danger of being unable to remain cooperative on oil pricing and supply, in part because of recent actions of Iraq. Iran and Iraq have accused Saudi Arabia of seeking higher production rates to accommodate the economic interests of the US, Japan, and Europe at the expense of the needs of local populations.

Iraq has periodically withheld the sale of some of its oil, keeping it out of the market, in attempts to drive crude prices higher. Over the past year, Iraq became a swing producer, turning its taps on and off at will. Saudi Arabia has proven willing to provide replacement supplies to the market when Iraqi exports have been reduced. Saudi Arabia's role has been extremely important in avoiding greater market volatility and in countering Iraq's efforts to take advantage of the oil market's structure.

But the US cannot depend on Saudi Arabia to continue these efforts. Many Arabs are upset with US bias in the Arab-Israeli conflict and they've applied pressure on the Saudi government to discontinue these favors to the US. Hussein designed a clever public-relations campaign to link Arab oil policy with the Arab-Israeli conflict and has stirred up more anti-American sentiment. Among young Palestinians, Saddam had been seen as a champion of the Palestinian cause.

The UN and multilateral sanctions imposed on Iraq created a policy dilemma for the US. Sanctions, such as those prohibiting foreign investment in Iraq, have had a severe effect on potential Iraqi oil production. Relaxing these sanctions would quickly add capacity to world oil markets. However, it might also allow Hussein to boast of his "victory" against the US, fuel his ambitions, and strengthen his regime. Hussein could then use oil revenues to build weapons of mass destruction, making him even more powerful in the region.

Influential people like Dick Cheney and James Baker have warned that volatile oil markets in the Middle East are highly likely and the potential for serious energy shortages is great. If left unsolved, these energy problems could "undermine our economy, our standard of living, and our national security." Oil security, yes. Economic security, yes. But, I'm not so sure it's accurate to invoke the magic words: "national security."

The Bush administration saw the choices as either relax sanctions on Iraq or go to war with them. To remove Hussein by force and replace him with a friendly regime offered some clear advantages over relaxation of sanctions. War could simultaneously eliminate our principal oil adversary and create a new oil ally to supplement or perhaps replace the questionable Saudis. Iraqi oil can be tapped and brought to market without fear that it would strengthen an unfriendly regime and lead to greater use of oil as an economic weapon against the West.

posted by Hal 9:09 PM