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After Saddam: Fledgling states, oceans of oil
By Francesco Sisci - Asia Times Online
BEIJING - The ongoing controversy between the United States and its allies over whether to make war on Iraq is in many respects out of date. The war is already on, and the real issue is not whether to wage it but how to win it. The war began the moment the United States declared that it was going to overthrow Saddam Hussein. It was already bombing Iraq's two no-fly zones but, most important, it was cordoning off Saddam politically and preparing for his demise. To stop the war after months of relentless propaganda against Saddam's government would be to lose the war. In fact, Saddam would be emboldened to step up his rearmament campaign. More important, backing off now would give greater sway to the anti-US hardliners in Saudi Arabia and Iran. And in fact the real target of the war on Iraq is not Iraq itself but Saudi Arabia. By toppling Saddam, the United States will gain control of the Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil reserves, shielding itself from the Saudi threat of raising oil prices and thus choking the already shaky Western economies. As well, with its hands on Kuwaiti and Iraqi oil, Washington will be in a better position to influence the power struggle in Saudi Arabia over the succession, and to make sure the anti-US elements there who armed and supported al-Qaeda's terrorists are eliminated. Iran would also feel the pinch of the US presence in Iraq, though here it is more difficult to assess whether the moderates would be able to use this new US presence to increase the pace of reforms, or whether the radicals would successfully wave the flag of a US threat. The unanswered question is: Couldn't Saudi Arabia be pressured into toeing the US line without waging a risky war on Iraq? The United States in effect controls Saudi security; it should have been easier to use existing US clout to force the Saudis' hand than to start a war with Iraq.


posted by A Curmudgeon 12:05 PM


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